The billion-dollar question hanging over the latest Ukraine peace bid is simple: What will Vladimir Putin do? The success or failure of the U.S.-led initiative to broker a summit with Volodymyr Zelenskyy rests almost entirely on the Russian leader’s calculations.
President Donald Trump himself has acknowledged this central uncertainty. While expressing hope that Putin is “tired” of the war, he also admitted, “We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks… It’s possible that he doesn’t want to make a deal.”
The White House is operating on the assumption that Putin is ready to talk. It has confidently announced that the Russian leader agreed to a summit within two weeks. This optimistic projection is now being tested against the more cautious and non-committal statements coming from Moscow’s foreign ministry.
As the world waits for Putin’s next move, President Zelenskyy is preparing his own. He is ready to engage directly on the difficult issue of territory. In the meantime, Ukraine’s allies are working on a framework of security guarantees, a plan that could be bolstered by U.S. airpower.